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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 302.84

+2.0%

Dec 2 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (3862)	7/5/2002 8:43:30 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) of 95515

Gottfried, I like your post. You are saying I think what I wanted to say, but didn't have a good way to state it. We have had a long period of "fear". The market has been going down for a long time and it has just taken out this week some major past lows. Is the U.S. economy worse off now than it was in 97, 98 and 99? I think not. As you say, just how much fear can a person have. I would have a lot more fear if the economy was not doing rather well. It is not doing as well as many people would like, but it is improving on a month to month basis. The semi business has been improving for some time on a month to month basis. When the market was going down in 2000, 2001, etc, record revenues and earnings were sometimes posted by companies and the market would immediately "kill" the company the next trading day by opening 20 to 30 percent lower. I know because I got caught in one of those actions - not very pretty! But why did that happen? Well the "market" was looking out 9 to 12 months or more saying bad things were going to happen. Sure enough, the prediction came to pass. What's the difference now? I submit the market is not looking forward more than a week or two to the next near term event. The "market" is not recognizing the economic recovery that has already started and is likely to continue. By 9 to 12 months from now, semi and semi-equip revenues and profits are going to be much larger - perhaps double what they are now. Does the "market" care? Not that I can see. At some point, I think the "market" will start to look forward into the future instead of being mired in the present. JMO See what you did Gottfried? You got me on my soapbox.<gg> Don

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