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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 302.84

+2.0%

Dec 2 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3866)	7/5/2002 9:15:29 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 95515

I am fully invested so I don't need to worry about how I will react to more moves down, I will suffer in silence. I am trying to formulate a response to a hoped for rally of some duration. I have Zeev's July 24 date in the back of my mind. The recent moves down have been in response to negative reports by big technology players. This has caused analysts to lower projections for H2 '02 and '03 for most technology companies. Valuations (PEGs) based on next year's earnings forecasts are not excessive, but expectations are that those forecasts will be revised lower. Almost all the companies I bought made positive statements at their most recent reporting events. Analysts have since lowered expectations. The upcoming earnings reports and conferences will be a key for me to decide if the companies I hold will move in lockstep with the industry or if they will continue to show superior results. In the first case, I will move from 100% stock to a signifcant cash position, 25-30%. In the second case, I will try to sell 6 month out of the money covered calls which I expect will expire worthless.

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