Jay, re Zimbabwe, things are never so bad that they can't get worse. Zimbabwe is just getting warmed up. The vast population explosions in Africa without economic development to match is resulting in a vast tragedy, starting with AIDS. 49% of Botswana people have HIV [and therefore AIDS].
The rest of humanity has had a huge population explosion too, supported by technology developments. The situation seems stable and even more stable than during the 20th century.
The overall human trend is on an amazing trajectory of improvement, Y2K glitches notwithstanding.
Jay, I do try to think as crowds do, but in anticipation of how they will think, to meet them head on later, when they think as I thought they'd think. I tend to have to wait about 2 or 3 years longer than I thought I would. Which is okay, because I'm patient.
I've waited now for 2 years for the US$ to fall and it has - my stash of Kiwi cash looking good now. I've waited now for 3 years for the Nasdaq and Dow to fall back to my buy range. I had a major glitch and losses due to Globalstar, but that was long ago now.
I currently think things are not getting worse. On the contrary, my 6 year old expectations have been met. Uncle Al has done just as I expected.
My expectation from some years ago was that the next move is for interest rates to start rising, along with the stockmarket, with no inflation [and more importantly, no spiraling deflationary implosion].
I did NOT expect such a total rout of cyberspace companies and telecoms and such a large Nasdaq decline [but neither had I given it the thought it deserved - partly due to being sidetracked by important personal business during 1998 and 1999]. But I did expect a good crunch to clear out the margined and tidy up excessive debt. I was NOT supposed to be one of those tidied up. However, I did my housecleaning over the past 18 months and am now [and have been for several months] lying in wait. In fact, you seem to be jumping the gun with the Comcast effort. I am NOT going to follow you [as I did into Global Crossing for a couple of weeks after bankruptcy and total collapse]. You wild and crazy manic investor!
I think I can wait a little longer.
Ever since I can remember, I have not been a crowd follower - I far prefer the vantage points outside looking in and joining the mob for short periods only.
I am waiting for the market to get tired of doing exercizes [down down up, down up, down down up, down, up down down]. When there is obvious resting and heavy breathing going on, I'll be back.
Anyway, gotta go,
Mqurice |
