Max, I don't have last week lows as the low of the year, if we had our string of 5 GNT's, maybe we could have put the low, but the "quality" of that low was poor, just a little better than the February low. Right now I have three "broad scenarios" for the next three months, the most likely is that this bump fails at 1526 or lower, that will probably result in another Nassacre and a bad one. For this scenario, I have a potential low now not too far from Softies's battle cry of Naz 1000 at between 1150 to 1195, depending on how far the current bump gets us. The second scenario, if we take out 1555 but do not exceed 1595, gets me a retest of the 7/3 low probably with a spike low to 1296. Only the third scenario, if we go above 1610 before August 16th results in the July 3rd lows being the low of the year, in the case of this third scenario, I have the deepest retrenchment ending above 1385. Right now the probabilities are 45%, 35% and 20% for the three scenarios, this indicates to me that the turnips are somehow confused on the way the market will behave in the next three months. The nature of the first retrenchment on this thrust up (probably early next week) will probably increase one of the scenarios' probabilities, and I will try and update this "forecast" as soon as I have enough data.
Zeev |
