re: Bad day for Openwave but good for Nokia
On an unusual market half day in the US when wireless stocks were up big time Openwave took a deserved hit:
OPWV Last: 1.95 Change: -0.05 -2.50%
This while this movement happened Friday for the wireless wonders:
IDCC 8.80 +10.41%
ERICY 1.81 +10.37%
NOK 15.14 +8.38%
QCOM 28.54 +8.19%
MOT 15.15 +4.41%
Openwave Gets Sawed In Half
marketwatch.com
Openwave May Be Getting Whacked for WAP
thestreet.com
Matt Hoffman of Soundview says:
We continue to believe longer-term market fundamentals are turning for
OPWV, though not fast enough to produce near-term results. We maintain outperform, but lower our price target to $6 based on valuation
of our reduced estimates.
He also states:
Reasons for the Miss: There were few encouraging details emerging from the call. The company complained about elongated sales cycles and subsidized MMS contracts from Nokia and Ericsson as the primary reasons for the miss. We find the latter excuse a bit troubling, as Openwave had not even announced an MMS product until late May. The one encouraging thing we heard is that most deals, about 70%-80%, are still in the pipeline and that operators are just more cautious than they were in the March period.
research.soundview.com
I think it is important to note that both Ericsson, and particularly of late Nokia, are coming on strong with their MMS offerings.
The latest Nokia announcement (MobileOne (M1) of Singapore) came Wednesday:
Nokia Aims To Break Multimedia Impasse
wireless.newsfactor.com
Nokia To Supply MMS System To Singapore's MobileOne
biz.yahoo.com
Mike at Mobile Communications coments on Openwave & Nokia
>> WINNERS AND LOSERS
05-JUL-2002
telecoms.com
telecoms.com
There has been talk over the years that Nokia and Openwave have, at times, been in competition to establish their products as industry standards. Certainly both have inspired conspiracy theories within the wireless world, with the word 'railroad' popping up more than once. This week sees the two companies at either end of the happy spectrum. Which one would you put your money on?
Well, here's a fact about each of them which indicates their respective fortunes: Openwave's share price is running at a little over $2. Less than two years ago it was just shy of $200. Nokia, meanwhile, has just been listed by the FT as the number one FTSE company in terms of shareholder return. Over five years, Nokia's total shareholder return has been 700%, with its nearest rival managing less than 500%.
Following a less than promising turn of events, WAP pioneer Openwave has had its Q3 earnings estimates slashed by Merrill Lynch from a maximum of US$91m to a minimum of US$71m. Trusted customers of the company are turning their backs; TIM and Telefonica Moviles opted for MMS kit from Nokia and Ericsson, while Verizon's adoption of Qualcomm's BREW is another painful snub. Could Openwave's ailing fortunes mark the beginning of the final chapter in the WAP saga?
Nokia's achievement is especially impressive given the plight of its industry cohorts. Of course, the bulk of that return will have come a couple of years ago so Nokia is still trading on past glories. How it performed in the past one or two year tables is not clear (it certainly didn't make the top ten for the one year list), but you can bet that it was far from stellar.
- Eric - |
