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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: michael97123 who wrote (91915)7/6/2002 12:14:37 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
Mike, within a secular bear market you get a good three or four major bull moves, sometimes double from the bottom. These two posts are not contradictory. If the flush this Autumn is cathartic enough, it could set the ground for a cyclical bull move within the secular bear market, such a move could take between 9 to 18 months before it expires. I have no position at this time if such awaits us post the Autumn relapse. Right now, I am still looking at various numbers that tell me a "consumer recession" (the "second dip") could be starting anytime between late this year and the middle of 2003. I don't think that a cyclical bull market will start before public recognition that we are in a consumer recession. That opinion could easily change, however.

Zeev
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