NI,
In all my posts, unless the reference is cited, the ~90% is my opinion, whatever they are correct or not. Also, as I am amateur, layman for all medical fields, my reading can be completely wrong. Never the less, I think that my background and information are better than average on SI.
Also, personally I do not like momentum player and market speculators, as they are one who partially contribute to currently low rating of the bt sector. By this, any short term BUY recommendation regardless the market focus, is misleading the small investors and signal to someone else to sell. Also, I agree with Bill Schicht regards the HOLD rating. It is sell signal.
I didn't read your letters because it is to expensive for me. My comment was in relation to BW release.
RE IPIC: Any drug which can't save life in the life-treating disease is *cosmetic* drug. Better explanation will be: Drug will do you a good, but do not expect to much of it!
Today preliminary results for Citicoline PIII trials are for me not so impressive. For mild stroke patients there are no difference, and for moderate to severe stroke there are no difference in mortality. It means that *oral Citicoline can't save single life*. In US approximately (~15% of total) 60-80,000 stroke victim died. Citicoline has positive therapeutic effects in neurological functional capabilities and cognitive function but didn't reduce infarct size. To me Citicoline is for post-stroke therapy, not stroke *directly*, and it will probably be synergistic/additive with other therapy. 230 M worldwide (no US and Canada) sale (my understanding is that this sale are from off label and together with stroke and other indications) are away from 400M sale in 2000 by Lehman, or B+ by some posts in IPIC thread. My point is that near term price target of 35 is to high.
RE NXCO: Corlopam will be on market but SNX-111 is still under question. Anyway, future will show market position of this two drugs. Does NXCO has anything else? NO!
RE CEPH: Cephalon should be punished not rewarded regards the Myotrophin. Because of the public manipulation and playing games with ALS patients. How can anyone explain so controversial opinion among Dr.'s regards the Myothropin. If one of your relatives has ALS, what will you recommend: Myotrophin or Rilutek?
RE CNSI: Even with full successful Cerestat stroke trials I didn't account (actually 50:50) for NDA based only on one trials. Normally, in first PIII drug target is broad disease population and based on first data second PIII trials (lucky one who can do this in first PIII) the specific disease population is target. Then, there are no problem with drug label and market penetration. Maybe many investor do not realize this, but every drug do not work for every patients. Company has to determine which patients population can benefit the most from their drugs, one of the PIII trials purpose.
My points is that current Cerestat trials , if drug found effective, can be valid PIII trial. Projection of the 18-24 months for second PIII is little to long, as the trials protocol is more specific and patients requirements are usually faster. IMO, 14-16 months will be more appropriate.
Regards the HOLD rating, my reading is SELL! If company has 3$/share cash, with good(?) probability that TBI trials (actually interim data) will be positive and move stock price to near $8/share, than it should be speculative (venture buy) buy rating, or at least *NOT RATING*. What is the diference betwen 4 and 3-3.5? Because, IMO, You lost fate in Cerestat and realize that previous buy recommendation based on Cerestat trials was wrong, to not repeat some mistake You recommended to sell. Also, if data are positive there are always time for reinitiated buy rating. I think that you are trying to cover real position on CNSI. It is fine with me because the only recommendation I follow is myself, and I can blame only myself.
mz |
