Hello Invstd,
> Scott: A few questions...
I'm glad that you are asking them ... they are very good questions!
> But, first, thanks for starting this board. It's
> interesting/frustrating (in equal measures) how every
> board strives for and struggles w/ its special motif and
> ultimately has to settle for the consequences. Those
> consequences, from my observations, seem to flow from the
> gap between whereever it is that most of us sit typing
> these messages and those places where a company actually
> conducts its business.
I agree completely ... and I am a "show me" type of person. I do not believe what I read ... I want to see the solutions, experiment with them, and only sell/suggest what I believe in.
> My hope is that this board, based on your described
> position as "VAR/reseller/R&D scientist" for XYBR &
> related technology/products in the wearable space will
> provide that ground-level perspective. That gives you and
> this board a particularly unique niche in the online
> community - and a unique responsibility. To the limited
> extent I am able to contribute, I will certainly try.
I will warn people here that I am often accused of "being ahead of my time" on most of my observations and predictions. I am a futurist at heart, and when I see that the foundations of a new trend are being laid I will declare that trend as being in existence.
My team and I were doing advanced and large scale deployments of 802.11 wireless back in 1998 ... well before most people realized what this technology was going to bring. Now, almost 4+ years later I am carrying a wearable computer around Salt Lake City, Utah and finding wireless Internet access almost every couple of blocks!
I am confident of certain trends that are coming very quickly in the wearable/mobile market ... although my perspective of "very quickly" is often different from others. In addition ... the changing investment landscape is an entirely different factor that I am now looking at how to account for. For example, the entire "head mounted display" market has been massively impacted by the economic downturn, and two or more of the core companies involved either collapsed or pulled out of the market. This, IMHO, has a big impact on the wearable space that I had not accounted for.
> So, with all of that in mind, here are 3 sets of
> questions that will hopefully add to the discussion (I
> generally tried to arrange them from specific-general):
>
> * Are you limited in any way because of your relationship
> w/ XYBR to the amount/extent of information you can
> provide?
I know that I have a non-disclosure with Xybernaut that covers information disclosed that is not public ... however I do not see why I would be limited from disclosing anything that I would communicate to any potential customer. As far as I am concerned, all of you are potential customers in one way or another ... ;-)
> Have you discussed this board w/ the company in advance
> of establishing it?
No ... not at all. And even after setting this up, I have not communicated it. This is a thread for the discussion of wearable computers and technologies, and is intended to be a general discussion forum. I also do not intend to "sell" Xybernaut in any way shape or form ... I will simply disclose my opinions and experiences. I'll bet that in some cases, Xybernaut might not agree with some of my perspectives.
> * Do you have a target market in mind as far as size/type
> of business for your XYBR-related marketing?
This is a good question, and I am still exploring the overall market. My initial targets have been in security/law enforcement/emergency response, network administration, and assisted living. I also am looking to make headway with the "early adopter" and "computer enthusiast" markets.
> Could you share a bit of your strategic thinking about
> how the company and its products fit in this economic
> climate?
I believe that it has to be tough for Xybernaut right now, except for the fact that some people are really looking at new technology solutions to contribute to "Homeland Security". I am getting some growing interest in the law enforcement community in being able to equip officers of all types - foot, horse, bicycle, etc. - with the same capabilities of a patrol car officer. This does require that the software is present, and works appropriately. I am working with a local company that makes software for law enforcement, and we are going to be doing some demos in the near future for some of these organizations.
> And, related, given the severe capex cut-backs, are
> prospective customers ready to even consider ROI
> incentives or are they still taking the wait-and-see
> perspective. (Those risk-taking first adopters, in this
> market, have got to be a rare find, I'm guessing.)
Yep ... I am seeing a *LOT* of wait-and-see ... this has forced me to focus on other immediate revenue opportunities, and use the wearables as an "attention getter" ... and to get people thinking about the future.
> * Finally, there's a proliferation of competition in the
> developmental stages - OQO and Antelope come to mind
> (though "tablet" displays would expand the possibilities
> considerably).
Yes ... Microsoft is pushing quickly forward with the tablet PC ... and I am impressed. It's going to assist, IMHO, with getting people to think of and experiment with new form factors.
> From the R&D side, how do you see the market evolving in
> the intermediate term (6mos-2yrs): will price constraints
> give advantage to "wearables" outside XYBR's space
> (cheaper w/out the HMD/hands-free capabilities) or do you
> think those same advantages will cut XYBR's way even
> considering the imperfections and relatively higher
> expense?
As I have communicated for some time on the XYBR thread, I see people beginning to move even more rapidly away from Palm ... and the PDA. The iPaq was a good first step, but the Oqo and Antelope systems, along with Motion Computing ( motioncomputing.com ), are all showing that we are going to see full blown computers in a form factor and price point that goes far beyond these simple PalmOS and WinCE machines.
I do believe that the tablet computers are going to pick up steam, and be the main point of focus for the upcoming 6+ months. And I do believe that this is going to be a tough story for Xybernaut. Even with the Atigo wireless display, people will be asking "Why would I carry a wearable *AND* a wireless tablet computer when I could just carry a tablet computer?" Good question ...
The HMD market is, IMHO, going to be the biggest impact on this story ... along with the extended peripherals.
The units from OQO, Antelope, and Motion are all constrained in size by their integrated LCD panels. They are also potentially limited in connectivity. Their "all in one" design means that I am going to throw away the unit to get the next new screen resolution, or new I/O accessory.
The wearable has it's advantage in that it can move to the HMD ... or other displays ... without effort. I do believe that adoption of HMDs is only a matter of time ... it's a pricing and fashion issue. At the same time, it will not take much for OQO, and the others to divorce themselves from the integrated panel architecture.
I believe that Xybernaut will be coming under even more pricing pressure from these products.
> From your perspective (and from beneath each of your
> hats), where do you think the IP lines are drawn in terms
> of these other offerings?
IMHO, companies who pursue these extensive IP and patent defensive measures are always going to be beat. They could be spending their time and efforts to build out the brand, and develop and grow the market! If they took their advantages of knowledge and experience, and simply got running with an affordable solution, they would be way out ahead of anyone else out there. For them to build a tablet would not take much time at all ... and still retain their leadership position in real wearables.
> These are a lot of questions to ask, I realize, and maybe
> beyond what you anticipated being called upon to answer
> (and I understand that you don't have to at all), but I
> think they do define a certain realm of serious
> discussion that other boards simply haven't been able to
> address.
I welcome the questions and discussion, and I know that I probably did not answer them all ... I know that you have caused me to think through some things that I haven't explored fully. ;-)
> Thanks for any light you can shed on these question and
> thanks again for giving one more opportunity to ask them.
Thanks for asking them, and I look forward to your follow-on questions!
Scott C. Lemon |
