Cary, You certainly have had a plan and you stuck with it over a long period. It has served you well, since you are now fully invested, and the last couple of days have seen a big rebound in the value of all your investments.
<<Valuations (PEGs) based on next year's earnings forecasts are not excessive, but expectations are that those forecasts will be revised lower. Almost all the companies I bought made positive statements at their most recent reporting events. Analysts have since lowered expectations.>>
As you know, I keep track of earnings estimates from First Call on a periodic basis for the SOX and the Group of semi-equips. While these estimates have "bounced around", both up and down, for the past many months, the tendency has been to improve.
A couple of data points for both are as follows:
For the SOX
2/28/02, this yr 1.96, next yr 13.40, total 15.36
7/4/02, this yr 3.24, next yr 12.93, total 16.17
For the Group
2/28/02, this yr -15.38, next yr 11.34, total -4.04
7/4/02, this yr -10.85, next yr 16.15, total 5.30
Not a lot of change over the approximately 4 month period, but IMO it will continue to improve as we move forward. The next few weeks/months will tell the tale.
Don |
