9-month cycle
Alternate 1: 10-, 20-, and 40-week cycles fixed with base at Sep 21 low
cycle tendencies
10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low range
Sep 21 start start start 965 none
Oct 16 green green green 1097 +132 1101 +136 N.A. N.A.
Nov 7 yellow green green 1115 + 18 1126 + 29 1052 - 42 74
Nov 30 red yellow green 1139 + 24 1163 + 48 1054 - 61 109
Dec 26 green yellow green 1149 + 10 1173 + 34 1114 - 25 59
Jan 16 yellow red yellow 1127 - 22 1177 + 28 1127 - 22 50
Feb 8 red red yellow 1096 - 31 1139 + 12 1078 - 49 61
Mar 5 green green yellow 1146 + 50 1157 + 61 1074 - 22 83
Mar 28 yellow green yellow 1147 + 1 1173 + 27 1131 - 15 42
Apr 19 red yellow red 1125 - 22 1148 + 1 1099 - 48 49
May 14 green yellow red 1096 - 29 1125 NC 1049 - 76 76
Jun 6 yellow red red 1029 - 67 1106 + 10 1027 - 69 79
Jun 28 red red red 990 - 39 1033 + 4 953 - 76 80
Jul 23 green green green 989 - 1 994 + 4 935 - 65 59
Aug 14 yellow green green
Sep 6 red yellow green
Oct 1 green yellow green
Oct 24 yellow red yellow
Nov 15 red red yellow
Dec 10 green green yellow
Jan 2 yellow green yellow
Jan 24 red yellow red
Feb 18 green yellow red
Mar 13 yellow red red
Apr 4 red red red
Alternate 2: 10-, 20-, and 40-week cycles lows at Sep 21 and Jul 3
cycle tendencies
10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low range
Sep 21 start start start 965 none
Oct 16 green green green 1097 +132 1101 +136 N.A. N.A.
Nov 7 yellow green green 1115 + 18 1126 + 29 1052 - 42 74
Nov 30 red yellow green 1139 + 24 1163 + 48 1054 - 61 109
Dec 26 green yellow green 1149 + 10 1173 + 34 1114 - 25 59
Jan 16 yellow red yellow 1127 - 22 1177 + 28 1127 - 22 50
Feb 8 red red yellow 1096 - 31 1139 + 12 1078 - 49 61
Mar 5 green green yellow 1146 + 50 1157 + 61 1074 - 22 83
Mar 28 yellow green yellow 1147 + 1 1173 + 27 1131 - 15 42
Apr 19 red yellow red 1125 - 22 1148 + 1 1099 - 48 49
May 14 green yellow red 1096 - 29 1125 NC 1049 - 76 76
Jun 6 yellow red red 1029 - 67 1106 + 10 1027 - 69 79
Jun 28 red red red 990 - 39 1033 + 4 953 - 76 80
Jul 3 red red red 954 - 36 994 + 4 935 - 65 59
Jul 26 green green green 989 + 35 989 + 35 954 NC 35
Aug 20 yellow green green
Sep 11 red yellow green
Oct 4 green yellow green
Oct 29 yellow red yellow
Nov 20 red red yellow
Dec 13 green green yellow
Jan 7 yellow green yellow
Jan 29 red yellow red
Feb 21 green yellow red
Mar 18 yellow red red
Apr 9 red red red
Alternate 3: 10-, 20-, and 40-week cycles lows at Sep 21 and Jul 26
Schedule based on a tentative low in late July whereby the periods/phases
align more closely with historical seasonal tendencies. The seasonal tendencies are:
(a) a rally into the first part of September;
(b) weakness after mid-September tax date (Sep 15) and into earnings warnings for Q3;
(c) a rally during Q3 reports, end of October tax-loss selling, and strength into mid-November;
(d) tax loss-selling into mid-December, and the 6-month top by late January; and
(e) nine-month cycle bottom by late April.
cycle tendencies
10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low range
Sep 21 start start start 965 none
Oct 16 green green green 1097 +132 1101 +136 N.A. N.A.
Nov 7 yellow green green 1115 + 18 1126 + 29 1052 - 42 74
Nov 30 red yellow green 1139 + 24 1163 + 48 1054 - 61 109
Dec 26 green yellow green 1149 + 10 1173 + 34 1114 - 25 59
Jan 16 yellow red yellow 1127 - 22 1177 + 28 1127 - 22 50
Feb 8 red red yellow 1096 - 31 1139 + 12 1078 - 49 61
Mar 5 green green yellow 1146 + 50 1157 + 61 1074 - 22 83
Mar 28 yellow green yellow 1147 + 1 1173 + 27 1131 - 15 42
Apr 19 red yellow red 1125 - 22 1148 + 1 1099 - 48 49
May 14 green yellow red 1096 - 29 1125 NC 1049 - 76 76
Jun 6 yellow red red 1029 - 67 1106 + 10 1027 - 69 79
Jun 28 red red red 990 - 39 1033 + 4 953 - 76 80
Jul 26 --- --- --- 989 - 1 994 + 4 935 - 65 59
Aug 20 green green green
Sep 12 yellow green green
Oct 4 red yellow green
Oct 29 green yellow green
Nov 21 yellow red yellow
Dec 13 red red yellow
Jan 7 green green yellow
Jan 30 yellow green yellow
Feb 21 red yellow red
Mar 18 green yellow red
Apr 15 yellow red red
May 2 red red red
22-week cycle
Sep 21 SPX trough 944
Dec 7 midpoint SPX crest 1167
Feb 22 SPX trough 1074
May 10 midpoint SPX crest 1055
Jul 26 SPX trough
Oct 11 midpoint SPX crest
Dec 27 SPX trough
26-week Dow cycle troughs
Oct 9, 98 Dow 7379
Apr 9, 99 Dow 9826 length 26 weeks
Oct 22, 99 Dow 9884 length 28 weeks
Mar 10, 00 Dow 9611 length 20 weeks
Oct 20, 00 Dow 9571 length 32 weeks
Mar 23, 01 Dow 9106 length 22 weeks
Sep 21, 01 Dow 8062 length 26 weeks
Feb 8, 02 Dow 9580 length 20 weeks
sample size 7
total 176 weeks
average 25 weeks
st dev 2 weeks
next approximate Dow trough
Jun 28, 02 20 weeks minimum length in sample
Aug 2, 02 25 weeks average length in sample |
