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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: SGJ who wrote (1579)7/7/2002 12:50:40 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) of 89467
 
thanks, QCOman
can USTreasury debt be downgraded?
that is without precedent
I expect some losses in TBond market after rates rise
meanwhile, the dollar fundys continue to deteriorate

do you think GSA's will open the door to USTBond vulnerability?
I mean expose the Trez market?
outside higher yields, what can be the effect?

I went out on the limb and predicted two things on TwinTower debts
I predicted the trade debt WOULD NOT narrow with lower dollar
a reduction from annual $480B to $430B would be meaningless
I predicted the federal debt WOULD RISE ABOVE $1 TRILLION ANNUALLY
foreign exporting economies will be nearing depression soon
if you could comment on these twintowers, much appreciated

agreed on HUI diverging from XAU
they diverged on the upside
now they should probably diverge on the downside
on upside the hedgers among XAU held them back
now ironically the unhedged among all HUI hurt them on downside
I just wonder if the heavily hedged like Barrick and AngloGold will persist in covering their forward sales while they have the opportunity

I have three downside POG marks: 305, 300, 295
I think we hit 305 without doubt
the Aden Sisters think 305 with a possibility of brief move under 300

then comes the massive upleg
timing is hard, but the start of upleg could begin in August
/ jim
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