Jurgis...
I too must agree with John. But just where does that leave us? How do we determine the period in which we absolutely knew the pricing of stocks, or a particular stock, was correct? Further, is there a more-accurate-than-others method for determining that correctness?
There will be a moment when investors will decide that the price is correct enough to buy. Maybe it was last Friday. Maybe it will be in September, or maybe the Spring of 2004. Are investors wise enough to know this, or is it herd mentality? If Malcolm is waiting for his price point, and John is waiting for his, and I am waiting for mine, how would I know the market has not left me, or Malcolm, or John behind?
Does this not lead to something like dollar cost averaging? Then the question becomes, at which point do you begin to start?
For me, there are too many imponderables in this, which is one fine argument for LTB&H. On the other hand, I hate taking losses, even paper loses.
I read today (Orange County Register) that stock mutual fund investment was $270 B in 2000, $33.6 B in 2001, and through May, is at (the rate of) $4.6 B. These are for all stock funds. A figure for technology stock funds would be very interesting, but I don't have one. Is a turnaround in that figure our signal?
Chaz |
