It's true, the P/E ratios of some of the stocks are crazy when you
look at this Fiscal Year, but if you look at the next Fiscal Year,
the ratios are not so bad in many cases.
For instance, in FSI's case, another 6 weeks and FY-97 will be
history. Since the present predicted earnings go from 30 cents
(this number seems to be in the bag - even FSI has confirmed it),
to 80 cents in FY-98, the P/E is reduced by over 50 percent.
This same scenario is repeated for many stocks. The following
table is based on the closing prices for last Friday.
7/11/97
CLOSE P/E
COMPANY PRICE FY-97 FY-98
Ontrak 38.50 107 51
Lam Research 46.75 72 44
Genus 5.31 76 33
Pri Automation 42.88 40 30
KLA Instruments 56.31 33 25
Speed Family 40.75 26 24
Electroglas 25.00 54 24
Gasonics 17.50 50 23
Micrion 17.75 24 23
Applied Materials 79.25 33 22
Brooks Automation 22.25 22
FSI International 17.25 58 22
Mattson Technology 13.13 119 21
Integrated Process Equipment 25.00 104 20
Teradyne 47.38 33 20
Phototronics 48.75 24 20
Silicon Valley Group 34.00 51 19
Fusion Systems 39.44 27 19
Helix Technology 47.75 25 19
Credence Systems 30.00 42 18
CFM Technologies 29.00 29 18
Veeco Instruments 41.50 24 18
Novellus Systems 95.94 23 18
General Instrument 26.88 21 16
Ultratech Stepper 26.13 20 16
Kulicke & Soffa Industries 39.25 24 16
Etec System 40.75 24 16
Cohu 35.75 18 15
Asyst Technologies 46.75 18 14
Watkins Johnson 32.25 23 14
Photon Dynamics 7.50 14
Semitool 15.00 19 13
LTX 6.81 681 13
MEMC Electronic Materials 36.31 41 12
Aseco 12.88 32 11
Integrated Measurement Systems 13.75 13 11
Tegal 7.13 9
Trikon Technologies 6.63 9
The two leaders, Ontrack and Lam Research are in merger talks.
Since Friday they have gone up a lot more. For the remainder of the
stocks, the numbers are probably reasonable based on historical growth
rates of 20 to 25 percent or more. Also there is a "smoothness" to
the data which suggests the market is "keying" to some extent on this
column. Notice there is a positive P/E for FY-98 for all stocks, not
so for FY-97. Also there are some very wild numbers for FY-97 which
the market is obviously ignoring.
One more thing, since the end of FY-97 is occuring for many stocks,
just like FSI, there probably will be a tendency for the market to
start evaluating FY-99 earnings. I think some of this is starting to
creep into the evaluation of FSI. Being a very strong company among
its peers, and in good position to grow, IMO the share price could
start (actually it has started already), and remain on a good growth
curve.
Don W. |
