Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (20857)	7/8/2002 12:38:48 AM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (2) of 74559

There is little evidence that we are inside the event horizon of financial stability. There is increasing evidence that the world is going to escape the biggest irrational exuberance in history without mayhem or even significant disruption or even recession. That's thanks, to a large extent, to the confidence instilled by Uncle Al in the stability of the US$. Mqurice, I am very glad that you keep bringing this up. The evidence is increasing that a recovery is building momentum. The economy in Canada is downright hot right now with a second interest rate hike with no corresponding US hike coming next week. It is not time to pull out the champagne (or a Malborough Sauvignon Blanc) yet but a quick cool Guiness may be in order. BTW, in terms of % of GNP, the 1845 railway bubble was slightly larger than our bubble. They are both about twice the size of the next tier though. Also, we have to differentiate asset-manias from technology-bubbles. One has no economic net positive and the second has massive economic net positives. Paul

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