Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: paul_philp who wrote (20902)	7/8/2002 12:50:06 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Paul: >>BTW, in terms of % of GNP, the 1845 railway bubble was slightly larger than our bubble. They are both about twice the size of the next tier though. Also, we have to differentiate asset-manias from technology-bubbles. One has no economic net positive and the second has massive economic net positives<< Interesting observation. We have recently experienced a technology bubble, imo, which has left us with a tremendously enhanced and now largely written down telecommunications infrastructure. The economic signals are increasingly positive and yet we still have a vast number of folks making the same old mistake of projecting current trends in a linear, not cyclical, fashion. (In booms, trees grow to the sky, in busts, the pit is bottomless). As always, the little guy will now stay in cash and bonds far too long. The sophisticated little guy in gold and puts.

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