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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.74

+1.8%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (3876)	7/8/2002 2:26:43 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) of 95487

I believe an added reason why there has been a drop in the semis lately is the concern about the US economy not recovering as well, or as quickly, as many have hoped for. GDP for the 1st quarter was 6% which encouraged many but now we see realistic expectations are for only 2% growth in the 2nd quarter. The future is still very cloudy in most crystal balls these days. I agree with the theory that it's only a matter of time for the general US economy to pick up some serious steam due to 40 year lows in the fed funds rate. However, it may not be until late this year, or next, before we see substantial improvement such that the ability to better forecast the future is possible. Earnings are upon us and with this season we should get some pretty interesting information. One would expect the corporate disclosures for the quarter will contain a lot of mea culpa details, due to WCOM, Enron, etc. These may cause temporary "unexpected" market gyrations which might mask some the more important long term investment issues like sector growth, capital expenditures, house cleaning and more lean, effective corporate business models.

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