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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (177916)	7/8/2002 8:00:51 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) of 436258

ABW sees a small probability of the end of the US “golden age” soon. Consequently, a US recession will mean a world recession and a US bear market will mean a global bear market for as far into the future as one can see. Thus investors who believe they can escape US equity market woes for more than one or two quarters by investing in Euro equity or Asian equity markets are fooling themselves. During the 1990s, US equity markets, investment banks and corporate CEOs were on a roll. Now they are in another roll–a dutch roll. A dutch roll is a dangerous and sometimes fatal combination of directional and lateral oscillation of an airplane as it spins out of control. By the same token, the unraveling of two decades of bull market in the US is beginning to look like a dutch roll. There is no longer any talk of money on the sidelines itching to buy stocks. Long-term earnings expectations and confidence in earnings are at a new low. The cracks in the “strong US dollar” story are almost as bad as the cracks in the equity market story. investavenue.com

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