John:
One of the fundamental problems in telecom is segment predatation.
Look at the ads:
Mobile for 24x365 for $19.95/month, and the phone is free! Consider the infrastructure needed to operate mobile phones is plant on top of the core. Very expensive, what with FCC license fees, site fees, access fees, operator assistance, etc.
They cannot be making money on mobile, considering that:
DSL internet for $49.95 (24x365), includes (self install) modem, but uses only the core and the last mile wire to your house. No FCC licenses, no site fees, no access fees, no operators, etc. DSL should be much cheaper, no?
Clearly what we have is the internet (wire) segment supporting the mobile segment, because there is competition in mobile, and zero in wire.
And oh yea, timing. I have heard a number of carriers are already on the edge of bandwidth utilization. But they are holding off, and simply proportioning bandwidth in their switches. You get what you get. The reasoning is: equipment prices are only going down, not up, and most customers are locked in anyway. May as well wait until service interruptions become a competitive (or FCC) issue.
That means augment in tight spots, but no overbuilds. This will make it tough for new high technology optical systems and or component companies.
Maybe six months.
JMHO
-Own |
