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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over?
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To: Kent Sarikaya who wrote (1205)7/16/1997 1:15:00 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom   of 2754
 
Kent,

I just use a spreadsheet to store data on the semi stocks followed by SI. It takes a little time to set it up, but once there, it only takes 15-20 minutes a week to keep it up. With a spreadsheet you can cut and paste data in a format that makes it easy to see trends by any variable that you want to track. The big advantage of a spreadsheet is the ability to "sort" data by any column.

I only started data tabulation at the beginning of June. So far, I am very satisfied with the results. I tried this approach because I was frustrated trying to find some variable that made sense in the evaluation process. I still have a lot of testing to do and various things to try.

I also think it may become more useful as time goes by because all the data can be stored for future reference. I am particularly interested in correlating the analysts predictions over a period of time. I really got "snookered" last year when I believed them in their predictions. I don't have the exact data anymore because I did not save it, and I have no way to retrieve it now, but as I remember they were predicting approximately 1.40 a share for FY-97 through last summer until November. Then they started backing off until it came down to 30 to 40 cents in April. In the meantime, the people who realized just how bad the downturn was in the semi business had unloaded at high prices and weren't buying. They knew that 1.40 a share for FSI was crazy - I didn't.

That is why I am very suspect of the 80 cents for FY-98. I don't think anyone has a "handle" on the right number at this time, including FSI management. Being conservative, they don't want to make any predictions until they know more. By then of course, it too late to make major gains for investors like you and I. We are caught having to make decisions without having all the facts.

I think Joe D. had a great post a few days ago. If I can paraphrase correctly, ""invest in a good company and wait for the gains - they will come.""

Don
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