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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: MythMan who wrote (178223)7/8/2002 8:37:13 PM
From: UnBelievable  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
But The Fed Thinks SPX Should Be About 876

"Still, it may be worthwhile to consider the model's predictions for the year-end 2002 level of the S&P 500 index. Given a current 20-year government bond yield of about 5.5% and employing the end-of-sample volatility measures for stocks and bonds, the model predicts a P/E ratio of 24.1. Applying this multiple to the S&P's estimate of $36.34 for reported earnings in 2002 yields a predicted value of 876 for the index--about 20% below the current level."

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