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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners
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To: techanalyst1 who wrote (12581)7/9/2002 3:23:11 AM
From: FR1  Read Replies (1) of 57684
 
IMHO, it is like this:

The "market" goes up when stocks have tremendous growth.

The biggest growth engine available today is the internet.

So businesses involved in deploying the internet had great growth.

Then the professors at the FED (none of whom have ever run a business) decided to go on a tight money policy for purely academic reasons. There was no inflation around - they just had hunches and pet theories.

All of the internet growth businesses had their funds cut off right in the middle of deployment. This absolutely destroyed the entire telcom industry because even though their projects were killed in mid-deployment, they were still responsible for the huge debt for projects that could not be completed. Nedless to say all venture capital, IPOs, and anything creative died instantly.

Therefore ATT, Quest, WorldCom, etc, etc - the guys that drove the growth were and are in horrible shape.

The Internet has not died. The desire has not died. The growth potential has not died. The FED can (and has) killed the primary engines of growth but they couldn't kill the concept.

So we have to restructure the big buyers of telcom gear before we can get back to growth. Hard to tell how long that will take.

The real enemy is congress. It is the constitutional duty of congress to oversee the FED but they refuse to do so because nobody wants to be on the committee that raises interest rates.

Oh well....when it does come back the broadband suppliers that will be the best bet - AMCC, PMCS, JDSU, BRCM, etc. They have the cutting edge technology with patents to protect their profit margins. They just don't have the customers because of the above reasons.
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