Dave, you are running out of material. Your whole case against AGPH was based on the ability of a PI to sustain revenues in a rapidly
changing competitive treatment environment and as a matter of valuation.
If you were short VRTX, you would be dishing out the same garbage on their thread as you do here. Did you see me on that thread with my reports from my contacts, something which you do repeatedly. I don't short stocks. My basis on bringing up VRTX was that if you thought AGPH was overvalued, look at VRTX (a much stronger case for shorting based on your reasons). Also , VX-478 has long been touted
as a second generation PI and will cause nelf to lose or slow down mkt share capture before or shortly after AGPH is able to break into profitability, which simply is not true. VX-478 will be lucky to get on the mkt in late 1998/early 1999, and will not have the clear advantages of a "superior PI" status over nelf as nelf has enjoyed against the current mkt leader, Crix. What will happen most likely (assuming double PI therapy isn't the norm by then) is that VX-478 will take away mkt share primarily from the first generation PIs, not the first 2nd generation PI (nelf). VX-478 has not shown any results to demonstrate superiority over nelf. The side-effect profile (terrible rashes, headaches, etc) is definitely not better than nelf. Evidence suggest it's mutation profile does not provide it the same argument of a first line therapy like nelf.
What evidence can you post that it is more potent than nelf? There is still 85% of a very rapidly expanding mkt that has yet to be penetrated, and all revenue projections will have to be thrown out if double PI therapy becomes common.
"how gullible these people are"?--You should ask the PI bear analyst at H&Q that trashed VRTX and all PI companies, which comes down to just AGPH and VRTX, since his comments would not have any major effect on MRK or ABT. HIS COMMENTS ON RESISTANCE WERE INACCURATE. I don't think anyone here is gullible and encourage all to do their own research. I post links to back up my opinions whenever possible, (Mr. Pink withstanding).
"2 internet accounts"? The only way I could write posts like yours, is if I dropped LSD 1hr prior to writing.
See you at $140.
Regards, John.. |
