Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.25

+0.9%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (64760)	7/9/2002 8:36:27 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Paul, Zeev has already called this a secular bear too. Within a secular bear he said a cyclical bull could arise that could double the market. But from what level? I too have trouble with this scenario. The demographics and the money supply argue strongly against this happening. But the huge deficits expected because of govt guns and butter policies support the thesis. In that scenario we will in some way repeat the 70's post vietnam swoon but exit that period this time to a demographic nightmare. (It may not be stagflation this time--could be destagflation though) In my opinion, government will use any means necessary to prevent this scenario from occurring but some feel what they are now doing produces the opposite effect. Those folks might say tighten credit now, and bite the bullet with a real recession and then we would have time to get back on our feet. mike

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