I can't look at 2003 jan options and divine where prices are going to go can I?
Nope. Not unless you've got a crystal ball, or your name is "Da Chief." <ggg>
Now, if prices are reasonably smooth close to expiration, doesn't it make sense that there is going to be a "center of gravity" for the options around where we close on expiry??
Sure, I guess.
If you don't have a time element included it is completey worthless -- I just see it referenced when the market has taken a hit. I've seen it referenced 2 weeks out -- 1 month out -- even 2 months out. Do you have any idea what max pain was for July options 2 months ago?
Why do you need to know months in advance in order to make a trade? If, say, seven trading days out, one of the major Max-P movers, (which are few), is way above Pain, short the puppy or buy some poots. If one of them is way below, go long or buy calls. Around Wednesday-Friday of expiry, close the positions, pocket $$$, be happy, look around for another trade. |
