Pearly:
Just back from the road myself, but got an entirely different perspective. Here are a few observations.
PC sales are not rebounding. Well run PC shops that have built a decent reputation for good repair work are holding their own, but many smaller shops are in the process of folding (there will be fewer PC shops by next year for sure). Many stores tell me that the majority of new sales today occur when an old box is brought in for repairs (and the estimated repair bill compares favourably with the cost of a much better new PC). "Commoditization" and market saturation is now self evident to all.
Cell phone sales are no longer sales..... they are a "giveaway" provided as an inducement to sign up for a "rate plan". The inventories are huge.
Very few sales folk are as enthusiaastic about 3G wireless devices now as was the case a year ago. Buyers are NOT lining up (as was expected).
PC gaming enthusiasm appears to have reached its climax and may be starting to wind down a bit. Heard this fairly frequently this time around. If this proves accurate (and I believe it is), the current woes of the graphics board makers will intensify.
No one, but no one, gives a hoot about the improved speed/performance of the latest micros. Nostalgia,....remember the great micro speed wars of a year or two ago?
Except for specialized situations, I could find no evidence of any rebound in trucking. Over the years, I have found truckers to be the quintessential optimists, but there is very little of that in evidence these days. Most are very worried,..... about the shrinkage of available loads, as well as load pricing. Many rigs on the road these days are owned by the guy driving up front and his rig is humping a big mortgage. Some truckers are already owning up to the difficulties involved in keeping up with the payments.
Auto sales are still fairly bouyant , but interestingly enough, sport truck sales and some SUVs seem to be losing their appeal (at least in some of the areas I visited). Nothing definitive yet, but perhaps a slow awakening? The auto lease bubble concerns are now out in the open and being discussed. Many auto folk are deeply worried about this now.
Not much change in the mall scene from last time out. Still lots of white-washed windows and plenty of rent/lease rate (downward) pressure.
Interestingly enough, I did find some good news. Boating/marine sales seem to be rebounding a bit, and there is not quite as much worry and fear as was the case last summer. Keep in mind that the sampling was small,regional and anecdotal.
Tool and Die shop owners are noting a serious deterioration in their back order situations. I have always found this marker to be an excellent leading indicator, so it is certainly worth noting.
The key thing I hoped to dig into on this trip was the apparent impact of lay-offs on buying attitudes. Have to admit to returning home with a mixed bag of results. In the one-industry small cities and towns where lay-offs have been consequential, the impact has been very large. But in population centres that are not heavily dependent on one or a few large industries, the impact of lay-offs (even where lay-offs have been significant) has not yet created any exodus of purchasers. More careful buying and more concern for a bargain price, but not much "heading for the bomb shelter" mentality in evidence..... yet. Retailers in general continue to worry about the "downscaling" of purchases that is grinding away at their margins.
Best, Earlie |
