re: CASH IS NOT JUST KING.... IT's THE ONLY THING"
Terry, I don't trade currencies... but, the Canadian & Aussie currencies should do well - both being commodity levered economies and they were hammered vs the USD, the Euro will in the opinion of many trade in parity, or perhaps to 1.05 - 1.10....I think the Canadaian Dollar is the best/safest risk to reward bet if you wanted to hedge.
I'm in US Dollars fwiw...and would probably just buy more gold/silver mining stocks and or physical silver/gold if I thought the USD was going to accelerate it's decline.
I think the BIG PROP JOB is waiting in the wings... Bush & Greenspan and all of WALL ST are sitting at a crisis - flashpoint here fwiw....whatever it takes.... is coming.
Maybe even a surprise FED "CUT" - you heard it here first.
- again; whatever it takes...
I think DOW 8500 holds... maybe intraday that 8000 level gets tested; but I think my Dow 7000 doesn't get seen untill post the 2004 Election.
DOW 7000 is where the old money value players will come out of the woodwork imo... but, I will be scaling in at 8000-8250, again at 7250-7500 and sub 7000. Maybe another 10% long at each pricepoint.
Again; more important than my "thinking" being correct - my "trading plan/strategy" will be... being primarially cash... with adequate gold/silver weighting and a balance of some select shorts & longs.
The bulk of my CASH is waiting for DOW 7,000 - but, fwiw - I will continue to "scale" in slowly each 500-750 points down ....I'd be 35-40% long if we approached a breach of Dow 7,000 with a cost basis around 7500-7750 - posied to go fully invested if the economic environment warranted... I can live with that..along the way we should be able to buy back energy cheaply, some DOW 50 names at reasonable PE's, steal some airlines for a speculative play, buy the stalwart names in Tech at cyclical lows, scoop up some Drugs, the Ute's at decade lows and be well positioned for the 2nd wave of the technology revolution to take hold... and I think it will.
Yes, we could have another decade of underperforming markets, but I don't think so. The Technology thing is real... the valuations weren't. The demographics for Equity Ownership, Roth's , 401K's, IRA's are still very positive for the US Markets.
A managed descent thru the 2004 Election and a nice positive economic cycle strongly entrenched by 2006-7. |
