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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: StockOperator who wrote (37824)7/10/2002 11:44:19 PM
From: StockOperator  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
Alright here we go again. Over the many months I have attempted to make a case for my analysis in what I thought to be a systematic way. My first post outlined my overall views that "there was going to be few places to hide" in a bear market that would affect all the major sectors (tech, bios, utilities...). The way I chose to make my case for that view was to make calls, based off the technicals, that were not fly by night but instead price action that I thought would be imminent based off timely chart patterns. What better way to add credibility to a overall viewpoint. Just lately I have continued that effort by talking about JBL and BA. Two stocks on the brink of showing their hands. Look at the price action today. Two more bricks for the foundation of my initial post. That is why when I see a stock like CSCO upgraded....or KEI up some change today....or the "apparent" strength or accumulation in some stocks I refuse to fall victim to the market's games. The appearance of strength has been a key tool by Mr. Market to keep investors hoping. I say that because I can't tell you how often they've closed prices (wkly or mnthly) for a whole bunch of stocks that I follow with what on the surface looks like a bullish finish only to cut it's legs out in the following same time period. So once again what do you with JBL or BA or LEH or QCOM???

I can tell you based off some simple measuring techniques that we could very easily lose another 1500+ pts on the DOW this qtr. Of course these techniques are like anything else, imperfect. But I will continue to stress that you have to look at today's DOW in the context of a whole bunch of stocks that have not even broken down hard yet. To include the six that I mentioned in my first paragraph. Technical realities. Just like FDX which has just capped a right shoulder with today's ugly initial bar.

Let me finish off by saying that although I am confident in my analysis I have great respect for the unknown. Any piece of good news like a Bin Laden capture or whatever could be explosive. So I continue to take my gains with gratitude. Yet the structure of things, especially for stocks like DIS, tells me that it shouldn't happen this year. Time will tell.
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