Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Andriy Turhovach who wrote (179021)	7/11/2002 12:07:35 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) of 436258

Max, I'm not Earlie, but thanks for your contribution to the CFZ. Nice post, and living in Phoenix (headquarters of several major trucking firms, including Swift and Knight), I believe you are spot on regarding changes in the industry. Regarding homebuilding, certainly times are booming right now...earnings in (nearly all) of these companies are soaring. Most have pretty decent backlogs for the time being. The real question underlying it all is what is driving the industry growth? Is it favorable demographics, low interest rates, and an otherwise underrecognized resilience in the economy? Or is it a mortgage lending bubble, fueled by a transaction based lending system in which pricing of loans has become dangerously distanced from risk? Tough questions to be sure! By the time things slow on the construction end, we'll likely be well into the downside of the cycle (since the backlog should take at least a few months to chew through for most builders). That's why everyone's looking for a decent "canary in the coal mine" for the builders. Regards Patron

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