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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: tradermike_1999 who started this subject	7/11/2002 1:11:33 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) of 74559

German exports shrinking Exports shrank y2y by 7.8% in May The ramp-up of exports in April did not hold. According to the federal statistics office in Wiesbaden the German firms exported 7.8% less goods than inthe same month of the last year. The imports shrank by even more - 12.5%. The retreat in exports was very much a surprise, because in the month of April the exports advanced by 5.7%. The number was seen as a positive sign after the discouraging 1Q (minus 2.2%). No wonder, the disappointment was even greater. Some commentaries claim, one can ignore the exports as a possible locomotive for the economy. On the other side there's voices, who point out, that the May data are disformed by the extra influence of many holidays and thus should not be taken too seriously. The federal organisation of trade and export companies (BGA) sees 5% y-2-y rise in exports as doable. A rise in euro vs dollar, that would be faster than expected, could endanger this goal. According to the statistics office the volume of exports in May was 50,2 Beuro vs 40,6 Beuro of imports. The trade within Euroland is down 7.6 y2y (exports) and 16.4% (imports). According to Anton Börner, president of BGA, the consumption is still "frighteningly" (erschreckend) low. This is evident from the import numbers. Since the beginning of the year it is down 8.5%. The exports are "only" 1,8% down. As a consolation the current account surplus. In the period Jan to May the exports surpassed imports by 50 (year ago 33) Beuro. dj

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