07/11/2002 - Updated 12:02 AM ET
Planners raise bar for Iraqi invasion
By John Diamond, USA TODAY
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WASHINGTON — A full-scale U.S. invasion of Iraq will require significant provocation by Saddam Hussein's regime — such as invading a neighbor, fielding a nuclear weapon or attacking its minority population, top Bush administration officials have concluded.
Senior officials at the Pentagon, State Department and other agencies say President Bush's national security team has agreed that the most dramatic option for toppling Saddam — a large-scale invasion — would be politically difficult at home and abroad without justification beyond Iraq's current friction with Washington over the suspected development of weapons of mass destruction.
That indicates the administration is raising the bar for an invasion, though by no means has ruled it out. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, have firsthand knowledge of U.S. military planning sessions on Iraq.
Publicly, the Bush administration has placed no conditions on its options. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, have argued since last year that the United States has the justification it needs for military action.
That view has prevailed for smaller-scale options. CIA covert action or a U.S.-backed rebellion in Iraq, for example, could be launched at any time.
As for a full-scale invasion, top officials have reached a consensus that the massive scale of the military assault, allied opposition to an unprovoked military action and uncertain support at home mean additional Iraqi provocation is essential.
Opponents of an invasion, particularly in the State Department, have argued that Iraq would need to commit a recognized international offense to justify an attack under the United Nations charter. Administration hard-liners say the charter allows pre-emptive attacks by nations facing imminent threat.
But even supporters of an invasion concede that, politically, the military option will require a stronger case against Iraq, according to State Department and Pentagon officials.
That's one reason that senior officials — including Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, and, to a lesser extent, Vice President Cheney — have been pressing the CIA to investigate a trickle of reports suggesting a connection between Saddam's regime and al-Qaeda, according to Pentagon and other officials.
Establishing a direct link between Saddam's regime and al-Qaeda, a militant Islamic group believed responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, would be enough to justify an invasion, the officials say. The agency has not confirmed a link.
Baghdad continues to bar U.N. weapons inspections but, according to one administration official, would quickly accept them if an invasion were imminent to undercut that issue as a pretext for U.S. action.
One Pentagon intelligence official said a draft Iraq invasion plan, a document about five inches thick, describes military preparations, logistics and tactics. The scope of the military operation, which could involve up to 300,000 U.S. troops, prompted the national security team to conclude that some sort of provocation by Iraq would have to precede an attack.
"The key problem right now is the lack of a spark, an offense" by Iraq, the official said. The administration has decided, the official said, that "there has to be a defining moment of some form, a defining event."
Contributing: Barbara Slavin and Dave Moniz
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