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Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing

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To: chip who wrote (30491)	7/11/2002 2:56:29 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) of 118717

The length of bulls and bears is sheer guesswork; no one in 1982 was predicting an 18-year bull market. When and how this one ends is equally up in the air. I suspect the critical dynamic is when individuals and funds exhaust themselves selling stocks at the bottom. Funds have been mostly dumping since 2000 - now I am hearing about individuals cashing out and running to safety in money market accounts and real estate (which they think is safe, who knows). My strategy is to buy reasonable valuations now and ignore the bloated big caps that still need to deflate further. Unfortunately, in a general wave of panic, everything comes down a few notches. Final irony - a trend must continue to be a trend, but no trend lasts forever. My personal "guess" is that the market has a miserable summer and starts to perk up by Q4 due to selling exhaustion starting to sink in.

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