Dataquest predicts fab equipment Q3 rebound, 2003 boom
By Semiconductor Business News
Jul 11, 2002 (5:45 AM)
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Foundry manufacturers and technical buys for leading edge devices are driving a rebound in worldwide wafer fab equipment spending, according to market research company Dataquest Inc., a part of Gartner Inc.
The market will grow from the third quarter of 2001 to the third quarter of 2002, according to San Jose based Dataquest, but the recovery is still fragile and will gather pace in 2003. The second half of 2002 is characterized by technology-driven equipment purchases, while 2003 will be a characterized by a transition to broader-based capacity addition, Dataquest analysts said, in a statment.
In the third quarter of 2002, worldwide wafer fab equipment spending is projected to reach $5.2 billion, a 5.3 percent increase from the same quarter a year earlier. But that prediction, together with similar growth in the fourth quarter would only temper a difficult market in 2002. Dataquest said that the year-end total for 2002 would still show an overall spending decline.
Gartner predicted that in 2002 the worldwide wafer fab equipment spending will be $18.9 billion, a 20% decline from 2001 revenue of $23.7 billion. The total of worldwide overall semiconductor capital spending, which also includes such activities as test and assembly is set to reach $35.3 billion in 2002, a 20.9% decline from 2001 figure of $44.6 billion.
"Those regions that cut little and late in 2001, such as some Japanese companies, continue to cut deep this year, while regions such as Asia/Pacific that cut early and deep last year are the first to increase this year," said Klaus Rinnen, chief analyst and director of Gartner Dataquest's semiconductor manufacturing group, in a statement.
Gartner Dataquest said that increased spending has been driven by the foundries.
"Initial spending growth from foundries has been in filling out leading-edge fabs in the face of improving but continuing overcapacity," Rinnen said. "But if demand does not materialize, spending can and will be cut rapidly."
New fab activity remains sluggish in 2002. Lack of demand and overcapacity in the fabs is keeping the need for new equipment slow and focused on technology until late in the year.
“In 2003, we will begin to see the transition to investment into upgrading established capacity to investment into new capacity,” said Rinnen.
In 2003 worldwide semiconductor capital spending is forecast to reach $47.3 billion, a 34% increase over 2002, while wafer fab equipment spending will total $26.9 billion, a 42.1% increase.
“We expect 2003 to be a transition year in several aspects: the transition from foundry-driven to broad-driven spending recovery, the transition from technology buys to capacity buys, and the transition from investment into established to investment into new capacity," Rinnen said. "We believe 2003 will finally be the year we see the transition from spending contraction to expansion in the annual revenue outlook." |
