What anyone long here should be thinking:
The following does not apply to folks trying to wiggle out a few percent. I am talking about people who are buying this in the hope a decent hold.
What such a long is saying, whether he knows it or not, is that the enormous head and shoulders in the market is not real. Now, this may well be, in which case it is the Hound signal of a lifetime, right up there with the great sister signals like the market run up out of the multi-year rising wedge in 1995 -- we all know what that lead to. If it is a Hound signal, then we all need to get long, on margin! -g/ng
However, if it is real and we are falling through the neckline, then how much of a rally can we expect here? The S&P is trading around 900 and the neckline is up there at 950. Sure, we could probe over it, one would expect that, so let's say 960 or 970.
It's a hell of a thing to bet against a head and shoulders the likes of which the American market has never seen before.
Cheers |
