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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs

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To: ahhaha who wrote (4770)	7/11/2002 4:00:59 PM
From: deeno	Read Replies (1) of 24758

The reason Im going to ask the following questions is that im interested in your answers. Background that I hope will ultimately make me some money. "Growth rate of throughput minus telco capex to add capacity" I think this says current capacity + new capacity purchased is growing slower then growth of information flow. When I couple this with "at peak times do we stall? Yes. You only need to go to dslreports to get a flavor of this. It is getting progressively more annoying. ATT for instance, is not delivering what they promise." AND "What does "loaded" really mean? It means that on cable BB response times and ftp transfers are slower" It sounds as if your saying that we have already reached saturation and the future either will bring us higher rates (lowering usage) or more infrastructure capex buys to increase capacity. ATT sounds like leaning toward the former. IF this saturation supposition is so then what are you using as growth rates for increased traffic? last years extrapolation? current actual increases? BTW where do you get this info? im always impressed. Also are you speaking from a company personal, regional, Domestic or Global perspective? "The cable companies very soon will be introducing a primitive form of QoS. That means that rates will be rising based on use, but the basic rate should tend to hold in contrast to the existing upward pressure to raise the basic rate. The pressure comes from ever increasing use without ever increasing additions to capacity. It isn't profitable to add capacity unless QoS is available. In that case basic service would improve and remain at a constant price." I'm taking this out of context, but I want to make sure that the above comments about capacity are not just cable oriented. You were talking about ALL forms of traffic werent you. "These conversations though are informal cocktail talk. So im not questioning the truth of your statement as much as how you came to this conclusion. Rates aren't getting cheaper all the time in anything. Quite the opposite is occurring." There was a hidden comment here. You may not remember but years ago on the ATHM we had numerous discussions of Satelite potentital. I did some extensive research in the area, and although I would have LOVED to buy something there I never did (thank god). Certianly part of the reason were your compeling arguments of feasability. Thank you. About 5 years has passed though and things change. I still have many contacts in the space industry and I have found untold capacity in current bird schedule. Rates have plummeted im told. So the long winded question is with rapidly changing technology could any of this huge capacity be used to offload some signficant load that would make capex spending less acute then you have indicated?

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