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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems
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To: Steve Lee who wrote (50333)7/11/2002 8:45:53 PM
From: cheryl williamson  Read Replies (1) of 64865
 
IMHO the markets are iffy now because of international political uncertainty.

International capitalism needs a boost from the governments in the G8 to enable another major market expansion. The last expansion which followed the end of the cold war has been pretty much saturated. Corporations can't expand and grow without a major expansion in credit and customer base. That can't happen with political uncertainty and military conflict.

Case in point: Nokia Telecommunications sold a huge cell-phone system in Turkey. Nokia used IMF credits and their own credit-system to help finance the multi-million dollar deal. The municipality in Turkey defaulted on the payments and there is no easy way for Nokia to collect.

Anti-Western sentiment in the middle-east has a negative, material effect on the movement of capital, extension of credit and unit sales for all major international companies.

Historically the needed expansions have necessitated conflicts in order to open these markets up. President Bush is trying to straddle the fence politically. He wants peace, not all-out war, but knows that we may need to get involved militarily in order to establish an orderly trading system.

I believe we will get our way, eventually, and the equity markets will respond in kind.

This is admittedly a macro-view, but I don't see a lot of value in long-term predictions that don't consider the political or the historical context.
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