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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (3469)	7/11/2002 10:26:22 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Robert, As I look over the data I see: 1) A consumer that has started to retrench, which makes sense given rising unemployment and the fact that a lot of folks who have been receiving unemployment have seen that run out. 2) A slow down in non-residential construction, which makes sense given over capacity in office and retail space. 3) An uptick in government. 4) An uptick in manufacturing helped further by the dollar. I think we are on that hairy edge of maybe yes, maybe no for the double-dip with the deciding factors being how much the consumer pulls back and when investment spending on tech begins to rise. I choose tech because I am not sure what more businesses need to invest in at this time other than some inventories. Also, one thing about technology is the obsolescence. In the government stats we are already starting to see the turn in cap spending on hardware. So my gut says no double dip, and that this stock market action is a loss of confidence in ethics more so than validation of the double dip. But I think the fragile remains a good description of the recovery. Cheers, Lee

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