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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (34207)7/12/2002 12:50:29 AM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (3) of 281500
 
But six months is still a long time and many things can happen once the words turn from intention to preparation.

Very true

This is also where an escalation in attacks can be expected anywhere in the world by those sympathetic to Iraq

Probably

I am not as optimistic regarding the acceptance of foreign troops there.

Why not? Consider how small Saddam's base of support is. Only the Sunnis at best, and they're less than one-third of the population. The Kurds, Turkomans, and Shia certainly have no reason to love him. And I doubt anyone among the Sunnis, apart from his native Tikritis, really benefits from Saddam's rule. This is the most brutal and nasty regime you can imagine. Bernard Lewis thinks the citizens of Baghdad would rejoice at our coming even more than the citizens of Kabul did.

Those men surrendering were untrained pawns in the middle of the desert with no air cover.I'm sure they were " dismissed " from service in a fairly brutal way afterward to show as an example.

The training and equipment will be much worse now. The efficacy of "examples" from the Gulf War depends on his men's belief that Saddam's regime will survive our coming. It is up to us to make them believe differently.

Now the Wild Card..........Israel.

What do you perceive as potential scenarios this time round?


Saddam will attack Israel with chemical warheads and the IAF will counter attack, Arik Sharon having politely informed GW Bush that he had better not withold the friend or foe codes as his father did in the Gulf War, because Israel is going in regardless. I regard this scenario as a near certainty and will be surprised if anything different happens.
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