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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: LindyBill who wrote (34213)	7/12/2002 2:02:22 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) of 281500

I have not seen anyone bring up this point, and you have it figured out in depth. Thanks, LB. Though I can hardly claim credit for any personal brilliance; this is merely the universal Israeli expectation. The Israelis also believe that their deterrence suffered a huge blow when they failed to respond to Saddam's scuds in the Gulf War and they don't intend to repeat the mistake. I also expect Hizbullah to open up the Israeli/Lebanese war at the same we attack Iraq. Syria will probably be drawn in as well, Bashar Assad doesn't sound smart enough to me to avoid it. It sounds to me like King Abdullah is looking really, really hard for some fence to sit on (he's now promising aid for "humanitarian" purposes only), but that's going to be a hard seat to find. I sure hope he survives. If he has a civil war, or a war with Syria on his hands, he will probably call for Israeli assistance, as his father did in 1970. Of course, Israel may be somewhat preoccupied at the time. I don't agree with you about the Democrats, I think they are split on the war. They are still trying to form enough of a consensus to have a party position at all.

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