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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.11+3.9%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST
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To: Elmer who wrote (84686)7/12/2002 2:03:17 AM
From: PetzRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Well, well. Let's do the math assuming TSMC's estimates are right. First of all, TSMC probably underestimated Intel's "8 inch equivalent capacity" since they want to claim to be#1 in 1-2 years.

According to TSMC, they had 332,000 WPM in March, rising to 381,000 at end of year and Intel has approximately the same capacity. That gives and average of 350,000 wafers per month x 12 months = 4.2 million wafers total. Intel capacity should be rising even faster than TSMC's, because 12" wafers have 2.25 x the surface area and suffer lower edge losses than 8" wafers. 12" wafers are a low % of TSMC's capacity but are supposed to be over 50% of Intel's by year end.

But I'll stick with the 4.2M equivalent 8" wafers number anyway.

Since 75% of Intel revenues come from PC and server CPUs, let's assume that Intel uses 60% of its capacity for PC CPUs. You'll have a hard time convincing me that they waste more than 10% of capacity each on chipsets, flash, comm/networking and embedded. That's 2.5 million wafers to produce no more than 150 million CPUs, or only 60 CPUs per wafer.

YUK!

That's WORSE THAN AMD! What was it, Dresden with 4200x13 wafers made >4M CPUs. Thats >73 CPUs per wafer. Austin had only 50-60% of that capacity and made almost as many Durons.

I guess it really only is AMD that has "world class yields" AND the "world's highest yields."

Jerry was right.

Petz
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