Yikes, Maurice, oops, paradise in trouble, so far away from ZIM. There appears to be few places to hide; can New Zealand escape, along with the Kiwi Dollar?
Should events in TNT devolve, I will be on the plane, with shopping list in bag. Excitement rises. Scent of flesh detected. Crimson filter readied for eye ware.
BTW, where have we heard this before ?
<<... According to the paper, which is published in Kingston, Jamaica, Trinidadians descended from African immigrants view Indo-Trinidadians as "untrustworthy," while those of Indian descent view Afro-Trinidadians as "lazy." ... Hindu ... Muslim>>
Microcosm of the world:0)
Chugs, Jay
stratfor.com
Trinidad and Tobago: No End in Sight to Political Gridlock
11 July 2002
Summary
Racially motivated political gridlock has kept Trinidad and Tobago without a sitting parliament since December. Although the country is not at great risk of racially motivated violence, the impasse already has hurt foreign investors' perceptions of the gas-rich island nation's long-term stability. New elections likely will be held before Oct. 31, but they may not end the ethnic-racial logjam.
Analysis
Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister Patrick Manning said July 8 that he would call new elections if his Peoples National Movement (PNM) fails to elect a house speaker at the next session of Parliament, according to the BBC. The energy-rich Caribbean nation's parliament has been without a speaker since elections in December split the vote equally between the ruling PNM and the opposition United National Congress (UNC), giving each 18 seats in Parliament.
The political gridlock is racially motivated: Afro-Trinidadian voters support the PNM, while Trinidadians descended from Indian immigrants mainly support the UNC. Since both ethnic groups represent roughly equal percentages of the population, the current gridlock could persist after new elections are held, unless breakaway groups in one or both parties negotiate a compromise that enables Parliament to elect a new house speaker. Although Manning has not announced a date for new elections, they must take place before Oct. 31, when the government's current fiscal year ends.
Without parliamentary approval for its 2002-2003 fiscal budget, the Manning government would be legally required to suspend all payments to public-sector employees, contractors and suppliers by Nov. 30. This could paralyze the government and provoke angry public protests. It also could disrupt the energy-based economy, since there would be no possibility of approving billions of dollars in new energy-related investments that foreign companies plan to make over the next three to four years.
Efforts to reduce tensions on both sides have been so far unsuccessful, due to high levels of personal animosity between Manning, UNC leader and former Prime Minister Basdeo Panday and President Arthur NR Robinson, who, like Manning, is Afro-Trinidadian. Panday says Robinson is a racist has called Manning a "hypocrite" and a "bigot," according to news reports from the island.
Panday also accused Manning and Robinson in April of conspiring to keep an "illegal government" in power. On July 2, he ordered the UNC's supporters to "prepare for war" in order to force Manning to call new elections immediately, according to the Financial Times. The UNC reportedly plans to organize street protests and vehicle blockades to disrupt business and transportation, in an effort to force Manning's hand.
Robinson responded to Panday's charges of racism with a slander lawsuit. He seeks a court injunction that would bar Panday from repeating the accusations and prohibit Trinidad's news media from publishing or broadcasting such allegations, The Associated Press reported July 3.
Manning has been trying to stave off growing pressures for new elections while seeking to negotiate an alliance with Team Unity (TU), a breakaway faction of the UNC. He recently told senior PNM officials that new elections could be avoided if the government persuades one or two opposition members to make a political alliance that would allow the election of a house speaker -- possibly an Indo-Trinidadian who could give the PNM government some bipartisan balance in Parliament.
However, that option may have disappeared July 9, when former attorney general and TU leader Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj told his new party's first national assembly that he would petition President Robinson to revoke Manning's appointment as prime minister, paving the way for new elections before Oct. 1.
Even so, new elections likely will not heal the racial divisions that daily newspaper The Gleaner recently described as "horrific." According to the paper, which is published in Kingston, Jamaica, Trinidadians descended from African immigrants view Indo-Trinidadians as "untrustworthy," while those of Indian descent view Afro-Trinidadians as "lazy." Racial divisions also are aggravated by religious differences between Indo-Trinidadians, who are Hindu or Muslim.
Unlike impoverished Guyana, which has a history of racial violence and an increasingly restive Afro-Guyanese minority, Trinidad and Tobago does not appear to be at imminent risk of violence. The economy grew 4.2 percent in 2001 and is projected to continue growing robustly over the next three years, thanks to the more than $5 billion invested by international energy companies since 1997. Those investments have launched Trinidad into the ranks of world-class exporters of liquefied natural gas and nitrogenous fertilizers.
However, executives with foreign companies that plan to invest another $3 billion over the next four years warned recently that Trinidad's simmering political tensions already have hurt investor perceptions of the country's long-term economic and political stability. Trinidad and Tobago can ill afford a disruption to these investments: Energy accounts for the vast majority of foreign direct investment, 70 percent of the country's foreign exchange earnings and 25 percent of GDP.
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