COMMENTARY - Naz 1000 or 1800? S&P 700 or 1100? The Game Continues.
Nothing has been settled, has it? We still don't know if the bottom is somewhere around here or somewhere off in the future, a few hundred points lower. We don't know if we will suddenly rocket higher or fall hard. I bet almost all of you feel that either could happen, don't you? Lots of mixed signals.
** We see scandal after scandal and lost confidence in Corporate America and the Markets, but a realization that this has happened many times before and we've always survived and prospered.
** We don't know if we can trust past earnings numbers which undermines fundamentals, but wonder whether it's just a small percentage of companies.
** We wonder if the crackdown by the Congress and the SEC will go too far or just be a lot of rheotoric soon to be forgotten, or "just right".
** We don't know if India-Pakistan or the Middle East will get worse or better. Will we go after Sadam soon and what will that mean for the Markets? Back during G.W.'s reign and the Mid-East crisis the Markets actually went up after the war started. Could that really happen again?
** Will overseas investors continue to pull out of the U.S. Markets and more important, will Americans continue to pull money out of Mutual Funds and the Markets?
** We saw Consumer Confidence numbers today 10 points weaker than last month, indicating more possibility of a double-dip "recession", yet retail sales were up.
** We see a head and shoulders pattern on the S&P indicating that if we close much below 923, we could see a disasterous return to S&P 300, if you believe in T/A solely (which I don't).
** We witness that valuation is mattering again, but also stocks with good fundamentals tanking (i.e. AGM, ACF, SGR, KG, ORB and many others) for no reason but rumors amid "short attacks".
** We see people joking about analysts poor record of predicting stock movement and conflicts of interest, but still seeing stocks react violently to whatever analysts say (e.g. the SELL rating of ZRAN by a small firm tanked the stock 4 points in a couple hours and then an upgrade moved it right back up).
It's all very, very unpredictable, but it's more than that. It's pure gambling. It's largely a game of following the "Power Players" who control the game. Please remember to preserve your capital above all else. The game will get easier to win at some point. |
