you are comparing future wafer starts and future CPU sales projections to current yields.
Huh? The TSMC numbers were for 2002. They said TSMC is expected to raise its total monthly capacity to 381,000 8-inch-equivalent wafers at the end of the year from 332,000 at the end of March.
In other words, the 332,000 is an actual number for March 2002, 381,000 is a projection for 12/02. And presumably they'll raise it another 20% so that sometime between mid 03 and mid 04 they will catch Hynix.
You don't even know how many wafer starts out of Intel's current 75k wspw worth of conceivable fab space are actually being used for production CPUs.
Based on the TSMC numbers, current capacity is a little higher, more like 80K wspw, but thats a minor quibble. And I said that only 60% of "conceivable fab space" was being used for production CPUs. Now, Intel might not be running this space at 100% capacity. If they are running at 2/3 capacity and they sell 130M CPUs in 2002 (4x the rate of Q1, which is usually above Q2, equal to Q3 but below Q4), the Good Die Per Wafer (GDPW) is
(130M sellable CPUs)/(80K wspw x 2/3 utilization rate x 0.6 fraction used for CPUs x 52 weeks)
= 78 sellable CPUs per wafer, running at 2/3 capacity.
Close to the number you get if you do the calculation for AMD. Still, less than 50% yield and not "world class" according to Elmer.
Petz |
