<Every BIG IMPORTANT bear index pattern picked up by the gurus and press over the last decade never happened. Head and Shoulders are the biggest culprit. Folks don't remember but we were in the same scenario in 1999 with Net stocks. Started the biggest rally in market history>
Wow, where do I start?
Contrarian thinking can be dangerous when everybody else is using it. Then, it's not really contrarian thinking.
The last BIG IMPORTANT bear index pattern the "press" picked up was the 1999-early 2001 on the S&P with the neckline around 1250 being violated in February 2001. I remember reading many articles and commentators on "popular tv" business shows talking about it. Bob Pisani on CNBC harped on it days on end. Even I was getting sick of it because it was so obvious.
That SUCCESSFUL breakdown from the H&S pattern (with a retracement back to the neckline as often happens in H&S) broke the back of the greatest bull market in history.
Yeah, I would say that was a BIG IMPORTANT bear index pattern. And the press was all over it. What were you watching/reading then? LOL
Here it is:
bigcharts.marketwatch.com
You say: "Folks don't remember but we were in the same scenario in 1999 with Net stocks. Started the biggest rally in market history"
You're losing me here. First you talk about BIG IMPORTANT bear market index patterns. Then you use a individual stocks (Net stocks) to support your thesis. Let's look at your examples anyway.
Here's the nasdaq chart:
bigcharts.marketwatch.com
No discernible complete H&S pattern that I can see in 1999, but you were talking about internet stocks.
I've looked up many popular internet stocks including AOL, YHOO, EBAY, AMZN, RNWK and could find only one that exhibited a complete H&S pattern top, EBAY. And guess what, the stock plummeted continuously for a month after violating the neckline(from 65 to 35).
Look it up yourself. What net stocks are you talking about?
You said, "The SP-500 H&S is much more a bull signal than bear signal."
Did it ever occur to you that in the "last decade" (till year 2000) every pattern was a buy signal. No duh, we were in the greatest bull market in history. I don't think that's working anymore. LOL
I somewhat agree with you here:
"I've been buying in here for my long term account and selling short and day trading the short term one. I think there's a ton of moola to be made on the long side in the next few months. Then we may go all to hell, and I'll sell short with everyone else. But in here I'm getting more bullish by the day."
I agree that when you see an article like the one I linked, we are probably near a short-term bottom. But that doesn't mean the author is wrong in his analysis, which is long-term in nature.
Good trading,
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