Iraq is no longer the major regional threat to Israel, but Iran, whose ex-president has openly warned of an intent to nuke Tel Aviv
I didn't say that Iraq was the greatest threat to Israel, I said that Iraq is a greater threat to Israel than it is to the US. There is no doubt that Iraq is and has been one of Israel's more significant regional antagonists, and that the US would be doing Israel an enormous favor by removing the current Iraqi government. Direct US action against Iraq would also place a "friendly" government (if the US plan succeeds) in close proximity to Iran. This would give the US a much expanded capacity to strike at Iran and be a clear statement that the US has the will to strike against states that use or support terrorism, and would be a powerful restraining factor on Iranian intentions. All of this is very much in Israel's interest.
The notion that Israel's failure to directly retaliate to the missile attacks during the Gulf war somehow diminishes the credibility of their deterrent seems so bizarre as to be almost ludicrous. The attacks were launched with the express intention of drawing Israel into the war; retaliation would have given Saddam exactly what he wanted. The US was already bombing everything available to bomb; Israeli retaliation would have been tactically irrelevant and strategically idiotic. Israel's failure to retaliate was not an act of weakness; it simply showed that they were smart enough not to shoot themselves in the foot by the knee-jerk application of an inappropriate policy.
This is well known among any who observed the situation. I don't think anybody in Teheran doubts for a fraction of a second that a nuke directed at Israel would incur an immediate response in kind. The mullahs may be willing to send others out to commit suicide, but I don't see many of them wanting to do it themselves.
Jordan has always been a secret ally of Israel, even before the peace treaty, though it has to watch out for civil disturbance. Kuwait is unlikely to make a fuss... Israel makes a damn good ally and I'm sure our boys in the Pentagon would rather risk IAF planes in any dangerous work than American planes.
Both Jordan and Kuwait have to be extremely careful with managing public opinion. The US also has to be very careful with managing regimes in the neighborhood that will not directly be involved in the action. Many of these regimes are very nasty and will have to be dealt with sooner or later, but we don't want to have that problem come to a head during a war with Iraq. One thing at a time. An Israeli attack on Iraq with real or perceived American complicity, especially if civilian targets are hit, would also enormously complicate the task of achieving postwar order in Iraq.
The political liability of an Israeli entry into a war with Iraq far exceeds any military advantage that could be gained. I am also not fond of the idea that an Israeli President could dictate, as you suggest, to an American President on an issue that could seriously compromise an American military effort. If he tries, I hope Bush is man enough to put Sharon in his place. |
