Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 214.11

+3.9%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Petz who wrote (84763)	7/13/2002 12:40:11 AM
From: burn2learn	Read Replies (2) of 275872

Based on the TSMC numbers, current capacity is a little higher, more like 80K wspw, but thats a minor quibble. And I said that only 60% of "conceivable fab space" was being used for production CPUs. Now, Intel might not be running this space at 100% capacity. If they are running at 2/3 capacity and they sell 130M CPUs in 2002 (4x the rate of Q1, which is usually above Q2, equal to Q3 but below Q4), the Good Die Per Wafer (GDPW) is (130M sellable CPUs)/(80K wspw x 2/3 utilization rate x 0.6 fraction used for CPUs x 52 weeks) = 78 sellable CPUs per wafer, running at 2/3 capacity. John, This answer is very simple for me, I get to see a spreadsheet of current loading by product and projected plans for next few years by quarter for every process and product. For you....you have a long way to go to be able to get to ballpark numbers. I will point out a few things and hopefully the forum can strive to get ballpark numbers for each piece of the pie. 1. you need an accurate list of fabs and forget the space and focus on wsw and current capacity loadings compared to full loadings. 2. develop a pareto for what products run on what processes and determine die size for each. 3. get a number for engineering lots for each process. you can't improve a process without engineering lots that have experiments ran on them, also a list future products and loadings of these to get them production worthy. 4. maybe a graph of gap to capacity capability vs outs to determine yield for each product / process. then show each separately. I can tell you for some products on some processes 78 die per wafer is kicking butt!! 5. It’s amazing but some products that Intel currently makes are on a process >1 micron and is sold out! These are legacy products made in Israel on a 6” wafer and are sold out for many years to come. How many die on a 6” wafer, and what are they? Fab 1-7 do they exist, how about Fab 8 what does it make? List your Fabs and how you think they are loaded for products. given ASP's and the fact that you know GM's do you need to do this exercise to know something must be running good. Why can you not assume yields are great and there is more to this than you can understand with the disclosed information?

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