Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: uclatrader who wrote (58628)	7/13/2002 1:22:42 PM
From: William H Huebl	of 94695

hi, I think I have your question: - do I think as GZ does that the markets are going much lower? - if I think it is going lower, why am I seeing a bounce here? First of all, I am not sure any of us knows for sure what is going to happen. That is always the caveat in any response anyone makes either here on the BK thread or elsewhere on SI. Second of all, I have believed in the possibility of revisiting the September lows and have had that posted on my website since September. The rationale? The many gaps in most of the indexes after the lows. Thirdly, I have been extremely concerned that the lows would eventually not hold and have had what I see the possible results to be on the NAS posted on my website since March prior to the September lows... (March of last year) Fourthly, the oversold nature of the markets PLUS several indicators showing this is as far as this leg of the downmove goes led me to believe we would have at least a good bounce over the next week or so... which is why GZ said he would be selling into it! Recently, I was asked about the Pring KST indicator and what I thought it was saying about the markets.... even though I used it as a clear forecast of what I thought was the bottoming of the markets earlier this year, I recently stated that it was now no longer clear that we would find the bottom here. So assuming you want a clear statement of where I stand right now and I will preface it with the market situation as I now believe it(they) stand: - the recent retest of market lows have taken out some really important supports; - indicators such as the KST and my own composite indicators plus traders' commitments and so on are saying we are not yet at a bottom; - the "secret weapon" indicator has reversed and gone negative again. I think we have further on the downside to go regardless of the fact I just bought more mutual fund shares with my available cash. GZ may well be right in saying that you want to sell into any rallies now in anticipation of a further move down. Will we get to 500 on the NAS as has been predicted on my Website for over a year? Only time will tell! Bill (My site - see the bottom of my bio and click on The Whetherman)

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