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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 283.58

+0.3%

Nov 25 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (3974)	7/13/2002 5:43:03 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (1) of 95471

Gottried, thanks for finding the Glickenhaus article. It's a very interesting read. However, the implication that tech is a buy NOW was the one thing I disagree with strongly. Sure, tech is the engine of US growth long-term, but right now the long-term (as far as stock prices are concerned) is maybe 5 years. Medium-term (1 year) there is still huge over-valuation in US tech stocks. Most of the big-caps need to be cut in half from here to get to even reasonable historic valuations, never mind cheap. Much of the current valuations still reflect a dramatically decreased equity risk premium, compared to say 10 years ago. IMO this is just another legacy of the capital spending/stock bubble, and it still needs to be corrected.

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