john defreitas wrote
>> soup, must agree with you...i just shorted aapl this morning at over >>$16....you have to
>> believe the market is going to hit this stock when earnings come out..
I think it depends on the size of the loss. AAPL posting a loss is old news, and I doubt any buyers this past week aren't aware that today is the earnings report. At this point, I think that any loss of less than $100 million is discounted, and won't cause the stock to tank.
Prediction: I'm guessing the earnings report will show a loss in the $40M - $60M range. The 3400 has been selling well, and that is a very high profit item. Sales of the 8600 were held up because of a shortage of brackets for the Zip drives, but those started shipping in June and those are high profit items. System 7.6 and 7.6.1 have been selling well ahead of expectations, with multiple pressings required, and the marginal cost on that kind of software is quite low ($10-$20 per, mainly for CD pressing, printing, and boxes). So the profit margin on excess OS sales is quite high.
As far as effect on the stock, I think a loss over 100M will cause it to tank. A loss between 60M and 100M will have no effect, and a loss below 60M will cause a sharp runup.
Consensus numbers are calling for a loss between 70M and 100M. It'll be interesting to see.
-Russ |
