Here's something, although I'd imagine it tracks the VIX and thus isn't new;
mad2
Question of the Day Indicates
Big Shift Toward Bearishness
A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP
Suddenly, there are a lot of bears out there.
If readers' responses to our admittedly unscientific online polls are any indication, investors have gotten considerably more pessimistic about the stock market's outlook over the past seven months. Amid the steady drumbeat of high-profile accounting scandals -- and continued worries about terrorism and the strength of the economy -- a general optimism has given way to gloom.
Consider:
As 2001 came to a close, the Online Journal's Question of the Day asked readers to predict where the Dow Jones Industrial Average would end the new year. Eighty-nine percent of readers said they believed the average, which ended 2001 at 10021.50, would close 2002 above 10000. Fifty-seven percent felt it would end above 11000.
Thursday's Question of the Day depicted a far different mindset. Only 34% of readers said they believe the market will recover by the end of 2002, and 46% said they believe a recovery will take more than a year.
Clearly, Question of the Day, which is chosen by Wall Street Journal editors to explore readers' opinions on some of the biggest business-news stories of the day, is far from a scientific survey and shouldn't be used as the basis of any significant conclusions. Still, the turnaround in sentiment about the stock market has been stark.
Here is a rundown on questions the Online Journal has asked this year about the market, along with a sampling of comments from readers. Follow the links to read more feedback from readers, or to join an online discussion tied to Thursday's question:
July 11, 2002 -- When do you expect the markets to recover? (The DJIA ended the day at 8801.53)
At least a year 46%
By year's end 22%
By next spring 20%
By Sept. 2002 12%
Total responses: 1375
• "Maybe the markets will never recover . . . " -- Stephen Kendall
• "I have lost confidence in our business leaders and stock market analysts. I'm beginning to believe that I would be better off putting my money under a mattress." -- Dave Halligan
* * *
June 28, 2002 -- Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average, down 7% this year, finish 2002 in positive territory? (The DJIA ended the day at 9243.26.)
No 55%
Yes 45%
Total responses: 960
• "You think the public would learn to drop these big companies and stop fighting this bear market. But no, we consumers are always on the take, and can feel something brewing in another sector." -- Chris Alter
• "The economy is fine and corporate earnings are slowly turning around. I'm convinced that the Dow will break even, or be in positive territory, for the year because of this. Let's face it, the market is driven by three things: 1. Intrinsic value, 2. Fear, 3. Greed " -- E. O'Dell
* * *
Feb. 15, 2002 -- Where do you think the stock market is headed in the next six months? (The DJIA ended the day at 9903.04.)
Up moderately 48%
About where it is today 28%
Down moderately 12%
Down sharply 7%
Up sharply 6%
Total responses: 254
• "Market growth, like change in psychotherapy, is a process. Many of us drunk with enthusiasm regarding both the economic growth in the last decade (remember that many of us boomers were cynical decliners), and the rate of return that equities consistently delivered, now have sobered to the reality that there indeed is a tomorrow." -- Jeff Drury
• On an individual company basis, the market will be all over the map. For example in telecom, expect long-distance alone companies to face the music of swap exposure with junk bond ratings. Their tanking stocks will be bought at a slight premium compared to today's or yesteryear's valuations by baby bells to form Qwest, Cingular type combo's. The baby bell's stocks will do ok. -- Tom Stroud
* * *
Dec. 31, 2001 -- Where will the Dow Jones Industrials close on Dec. 31, 2002? (The DJIA ended 2001 at 10021.50.)
11000-12000 40%
10000-11000 32%
12000 or higher 17%
8000-10000 7%
Below 8000 4%
Total responses: 1052
• "Forecasting the Dow to achieve 11000 seems like sinking a gimme putt during the weekly round of golf. The equity markets suggest by their quick recovery from the 9-11 that the economy will head upward promptly in the new year - if it has not already started to climb." -- John E. Yox
• "I think the Dow will reflect the election of 2002. If the Republicans win, then probably up around 12000. If Democrats win, then probably down around 9,000. Why? Because if successful, I think the Democrats will brainwash the people into believing the economy is worse than it is... and blame the Republicans for it." -- Travis Nave
Updated July 11, 2002 11:24 p.m. EDT
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