Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 343.07

-0.5%

Jan 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (3983)	7/15/2002 2:01:24 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95765

RtS, <<So that leaves us with about a 25% drop ahead to get us to the historical PE ratio of 14 or a big acceleration in earnings to pull up those expectations to an actual PE ratio of 14.>> That's true, but how does the market get to that PE of 14 (and possibly even much lower - 9 or 10 maybe?). How long does it take the market to get over the excess. Many people say it will take many months or even several years. In the meantime, there could be many rally's of 20, 30, 50 percent or more. Even though we are pretty well convinced of further market price "lowering" to more "average" levels, the ride might be pretty wild getting there. The week ahead is our first step into the unknown.<g> Don

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